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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

However this year's field is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers improving together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still