Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
